Would Fully Healthy Masahiro Tanaka Even Be Enough for Yankees to Contend?
January 29, 2015 · Zachary D. Rymer · Jump to comments
Article Source: Bleacher Report - New York Yankees
More than any other, the word “maybe” comes to mind when thinking about Masahiro Tanaka and the New York Yankees. In fact, it comes to mind twice.
Here’s Maybe No. 1: Despite having a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow, maybe the ace right-hander can avoid Tommy John surgery and stay healthy in 2015.
And here’s Maybe No. 2: If he does, maybe the Yankees will have a shot at returning to October.
Time will tell, of course. But with spring training approaching, it’s high time for us to ponder these two maybes. And on that note, the outlook of the first one is suddenly a bit brighter.
There’s a report out from The Japan Times about how Tanaka is working out back in his homeland these days, and he expressed both optimism about his elbow and high hopes for the upcoming season.
First, here’s what he said about his elbow: “So far so good—including that.”
Now, you do have to take this with some amount of salt. It could be Tanaka‘s elbow is barking more than he’s letting on. Or maybe it does feel good, but the ligament is still very much compromised.
But then, he was able to come back and pitch before 2014 ended. And though the odds aren’t necessarily in favor of the possibility, he wouldn’t be the first to overcome a partially torn UCL without the operation. So what the heck? Let’s be optimistic about Tanaka‘s outlook for 2015.
That way, we can consider something else he had to say: “This year I hope to have the shortest offseason among all 30 big league clubs.”
Not surprisingly, Tanaka plans on contending. He’s a professional athlete and also a Yankee. He darn well better plan on contending.
But this brings us back to Maybe No. 2: Even if he does stay healthy, will the Yankees be good enough?
For the first time in a while, it doesn’t feel controversial to say that the Yankees don’t look like a particularly great team. They’ve missed the postseason two years in a row, after all, and they haven’t responded with an all-out offseason romp.
In early December, before the Yankees had made any notable moves, ESPN.com’s Paul Swydan had them pegged as the worst team in the AL East, writing:
“If there isn’t some noise from the Bronx soon, though, it’s possible the Yankees might not only be looking at a third straight year of October tee times, but also a last-place finish for the first time since 1990.”
The Yankees started making moves after this, of course, but all of them came with a catch.
The Yankees got Didi Gregorius to replace Derek Jeter, but it cost them Shane Greene. They signed Andrew Miller but lost David Robertson. They re-signed Chase Headley, but then traded Martin Prado. They signed Stephen Drew to be the veteran answer at second base, but his .536 OPS in 2014 suggests the Yankees may be better off going with one of the kids they have.
Aside from the players the Yankees have brought in, you can still see a lot of literal wrinkles. Brian McCann, Mark Teixeira, Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury are past 30, and Alex Rodriguez and Carlos Beltran are pushing 40.
But the biggest question mark of all may be in Tanaka‘s neck of the woods. Here’s what the Yankees’ projected starting rotation did in 2014 (disabled-list days courtesy of Baseball Prospectus):
Including Tanaka, this is a rotation topped by three guys who just spent a combined 314 days on the DL.
And while we can be optimistic about Tanaka, it’s harder to be optimistic with CC Sabathia and Michael Pineda. The former is a 34-year-old who’s clearly on the downside of his career, and the latter’s 13 starts in 2014 are the only 13 starts he’s made in the last three years.
Then there’s Nathan Eovaldi and Chris Capuano. Eovaldi is a worthwhile upside play, but his potential has yet to translate into results. Capuano, meanwhile, is a “meh” option even by No. 5 standards.
Point being: This is a rotation that needs somebody to be the rock. To this end, Tanaka being that guy would be just dandy.
You have to go back to Tanaka‘s first 17 starts to find the last time he was healthy and firing on all cylinders. In those, he was amazing. He pitched to a 2.27 ERA, held batters to a .620 OPS and racked up a 130-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio. That’s the production of a legit ace, and he looked the part with his quality fastball command, other-worldly splitter and underappreciated righty-killing slider.
If Tanaka can stay healthy, he should once again be one of baseball’s best pitchers. And fortunately, we don’t need to use our imaginations to picture what that could mean for the Yankees.
Not while we have projections, anyway. Here’s what Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections and Steamer projections at FanGraphs see Tanaka doing in 2015:
There’s some disagreement here, and these figures don’t resemble the dominant pitcher Tanaka was in 2014 overall.
But taking into account the conservative nature of these projections, these are actually really good numbers. Not many pitchers are projected to be better than Tanaka, which is to say that both systems are indeed expecting him to be a.) healthy and b.) quite good.
Put these projections for Tanaka next to the projections for the rest of the Yankees, and you get a projection for how they’ll perform in 2015. To this end, Baseball Prospectus has them winning 80 games, and FanGraphs has them winning 83 games.
That’s not as bad as it sounds. FanGraphs‘ projection of 83 wins puts the Yankees firmly in a group with a handful of likely American League wild-card contenders. Baseball Prospectus’ projection of 80 wins doesn’t put the Yankees firmly in that group, but it does put them within reach of it.
This is to say that, yes, the Yankees can be contenders with a healthy and productive Tanaka. Maybe not favorites, but contenders. In an age when two sub-90-win teams just went to the World Series and the American League is about as well balanced as it’s ever been, that’s good enough.
If you’re waiting for the inevitable catch, it’s that the projections aren’t just taking it for granted that Tanaka will be healthy and productive in 2015. FanGraphs and BP expect Sabathia and Pineda to do the same to a certain degree, and they also expect a rebound season from McCann, Beltran and Teixeira.
So they’re not just going out on a limb in thinking Tanaka will get it done in 2015. They’re doing the same with five other parts that are at least as flimsy as him, if not flimsier.
Which, you know, is not entirely encouraging.
That means Tanaka isn’t the only linchpin who will need to hold strong for the Yankees to merely be a wild-card contender. The projections basically think all their wild cards will have to pan out for the Yankees to get there. And that’s without even getting into how the AL’s other would-be contenders would have to cooperate by getting out of their way.
Typically, you can argue against projections by arguing that they’re underrating a given team’s high-upside players. But outside of Gregorius and Eovaldi, the Yankees are short on those.
Also, what clear strengths they have could well be counterbalanced by clear weaknesses. Their bullpen is strong but could be exhausted by their weak rotation. ESPN.com’s Buster Olney is right to argue that the Yankees have a top-10 defense, but on the flip side of it could be a bottom-10 offense.
This is to say that the essential message of the projections is accurate: If the Yankees are going to even be a wild-card contender in 2015, they’re really going to need all their own wild cards to pan out.
As such, the news of Tanaka‘s elbow feeling good has to be taken for what it’s worth. It’s encouraging, but there are still too many question marks remaining on the Yankees roster even if you erase the one next to his name.
That’s the state of the Yankees. Rather than on certainties, they’re banking on a few too many maybes to get them back to October.
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.
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