Do the Joba Rules Rule?
August 14, 2009 · Thomas McGrath · Jump to comments
Article Source: Bleacher Report - New York Yankees
Okay, so I don’t really think the Joba Rules rule. As a Yankee fan (and a Nebraska fan) I am as disappointed as anyone when Joba isn’t starting every fifth day.
Sure, he can be inconsistent, but he can also strike out 10 in seven scoreless innings. Preventing that kind of talent from pitching every fifth day is a crime right?
Not so fast.
For once, the New York Yankees have actually done their research. Although many of the now accepted pitching rules (like 100 pitches in a game) don’t have any merit to them, the “200 inning rule” does have quite a bit of support.
Lots of die-hard baseball fans wonder why pitchers nowadays shouldn’t be able to come into the big leagues and throw a ton of pitches at a young age (like they did for so many years).
I wondered that for a long time as well.
The answer, as stupid as it may be, is that pitchers are throwing a lot fewer pitches before they get to pro ball. In college they only throw once a week and the season only lasts a third as long as the pro season.
His senior year at Nebraska, for example, Joba only threw 118.8 innings. He has already surpassed that number this year.
Add to that the fact that Joba has yet to be a full time starter since college (he played less than a year in the minors and was called up as a reliever), and you have the concern over his arm.
That is one reason why the Yankees are extra cautious with Joba (and why most teams are cautious with their young pitchers).
The other reason has nothing to do with Chamberlain.
As I said earlier, the Yankees have done extensive research in an effort to figure out what is too many pitches for a young arm. What they came up with seems to be 175-200 innings.
Let’s look at some examples of pitchers who have thrown around 175 innings before the age of 25 (in their first year of two in the big leagues)
Mark Prior
Prior threw 211.1 innings in his second year in 2003 (not even including postseason play). He had a great year, but I don’t think the Yankees want Joba’s career to mirror Prior’s.
Dontrelle Willis
Willis threw 197 innings in his second year in 2004, followed by three straight years of 200 plus innings. Once again, Willis was successful during those years, but his arm tired out and has never recovered (which is his real problem, not his anxiety)
Kerry Wood
Wood threw 171.2 innings in his rookie year in 1998. Like Willis, he had a couple of good years after that, but his arm was unable to sustain a career as a starting pitcher.
Francisco Liriano
Now if you look at Liriano’s stat line, it says he only threw 121 innings his rookie year in 2006. If you look closer, however, you see that they came in just 16 starts (roughly half of the starts a pitcher makes in a season). That means he was on pace for well over 200 innings. Once again, his arm couldn’t handle it.
I would be naive to think that this is always the case. There are exceptions no doubt.
CC Sabathia is probably the best. Since his rookie year in 2001 he has yet to throw fewer than 180 innings and his arm seems to have held up.
If you want a current case to follow, take a look at Tim Lincecum. In his second year (last season) he threw 227 innings. He is currently on pace for another 200-plus innings this year.
He is a freak, but enough of one to overcome the odds?
It will be interesting to see how Lincecum’s career compares to Joba’s when it is all said and done.
Here is the main point though. Who are the best pitchers in baseball?
My top three (and certainly in everyone’s top five) are Roy Halladay, Johan Santana, and Josh Beckett.
All of them crossed the 175 pitch plateau at age 25 in their fifth season pitching in the majors. Chamberlain is 23 and is in his third year in the big leagues.
That means that not only should the Yankees be monitoring his innings this year, but next year as well. He is still an impact pitcher with 150 innings. He will not be an impact pitcher on the DL.
So, the numbers certainly support what the Yankees are doing. It pains me to see him having to sit, but it might be what’s best for the long haul.
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