Are Yankees Quietly Looking Ahead to Next Year’s Huge Free-Agent Pitching Crop?
December 3, 2014 · Jason Catania · Jump to comments
Article Source: Bleacher Report - New York Yankees
It’s hard to get a handle on the New York Yankees‘ intentions this offseason. They apparently want to avoid spending major money for a second straight winter, while at the same time, they’re also aiming to improve and avoid a third consecutive year without reaching the playoffs.
On one hand, there are recent reports linking the Yankees to Max Scherzer, the right-hander who won the 2013 AL Cy Young and arguably is the top talent in free agency, according to John Harper of the New York Daily News.
On the other, however, general manager Brian Cashman has indicated he doesn’t necessarily have plans to target big-name free agents, particularly pitchers, according to Mark Feinsand, who just so happens to be Harper’s colleague at the Daily News.
Same newspaper, two different takes. No wonder it’s anybody’s guess at the moment what the Yankees will—or won’t—do this winter.
But maybe that’s because what they’re really trying to do this winter is save up for the next one.
There’s the line of thinking that the Yankees need to respond in the wake of key additions by two AL East rivals. The Toronto Blue Jays signed Russell Martin and traded for Josh Donaldson, while the Boston Red Sox inked both Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval.
But it’s also entirely possible that New York will focus on mid-tier options, like third baseman Chase Headley, right-hander Brandon McCarthy and lefty reliever Andrew Miller, rather than pony up to land a Scherzer or Jon Lester or James Shields, the top three free-agent arms.
Part of that is because the Yankees currently own the No. 17 overall draft pick next June,* which would be the highest since they had the same selection back in 2005. If they were to sign a player who rejected the qualifying offer—a group of 12 that includes both Scherzer and Shields—the Yankees’ first-round selection would vanish.
(*The Yankees began the offseason with the No. 19 pick, but two teams ahead of them have lost their first-round choices by virtue of signing free agents who rejected qualifying offers: the New York Mets, who inked Michael Cuddyer, and the Blue Jays, who added Martin)
Another factor? While health was the Yankees’ biggest problem in 2014, offense—not pitching—was the Yankees’ primary area of concern from a performance standpoint.
The biggest reason Cashman may be laying low this winter, however, is the quality and quantity of should-be readily available arms on the open market next year.
If you think 2014’s crop of free-agent pitchers is a good one, well, 2015’s could be better. Much better.
Here’s a rundown of some of the more interesting hurlers in line to reach free agency after the season: David Price, Jordan Zimmermann, Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, Doug Fister, Hisashi Iwakuma, Mat Latos, Ian Kennedy, Rick Porcello, Scott Kazmir and Yovani Gallardo.
Not all of them will make it to free agency; some will sign extensions before then. But it’s easy to imagine a scenario where at least a handful choose to forgo that possibility for the right to go to the highest bidder.
So if the Yankees are, in fact, holding firm in their plan not to go overboard between now and March, the primary motivation very well could be that they’re gearing up for a year from now.
After all, the above names are only available now via trade, and the Yankees aren’t exactly swimming in sought-after assets, what with numerous onerous contracts at the big league level and a mediocre farm system.
Beyond all that, there’s this: The Yankees need to get an idea of how their rotation will shake out. That’s something they don’t—or can’t—know yet.
For instance, each of Masahiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia, Michael Pineda and Ivan Nova dealt with serious injuries that knocked them out for much of the 2014 season. How will they fare, and how will they hold up in 2015?
Then there’s the uncertainty surrounding Hiroki Kuroda, the club’s most consistent starter the past three years, who will turn 40 in February and simply may decide to retire.
“I think we have good pitching,” Cashman told Wallace Matthews of ESPNNewYork.com, “but there’s obviously some volatility in it because of the health status and health histories of some of them.”
Cashman could spend big now and hope to cover any holes or injuries, but it’s impossible to know just how many holes and how many injuries will crop up. And if too many do—again—then there won’t be enough to keep them in contention, even with a stud starter like Scherzer, Lester or Shields.
Considering that 2015 looks to be a transitional year for the Yankees at the moment, as much as the goal should be trying to avoid a third straight October-less campaign, the goal also should be to figure out which arms can be counted on for the long term.
That approach might not satisfy many Yankees fans in 2014, but it could put the team in better shape a year from now, when there could be more—and especially, more talented—pitchers on the free-agent market.
Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.
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