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Yankees Ultimate Playoff Preview And DS Predictions

October 5, 2010 · NY Sports Digest · Jump to comments
Article Source: Bleacher Report - New York Yankees

By Vincent Z. Mercogliano

A lot has been made over the fact that the New York Yankees missed their chance to finish first in AL East and secure home-field advantage. But in all honesty, the Yanks’ fall from first to fourth in the AL (which forces them to travel to Minnesota) is not what should have Yankee fans worried.

Yes, the Yankees are a more dangerous team at home, where their power-laden lineup can take advantage of short porches all over the field. But, aside from that, you could probably make the argument that there are more pros than cons to finishing behind the Tampa Bay Rays and settling for the Wild Card.

First and foremost is the fact that the Twins, the Yanks’ divisional round opponent for the second consecutive year, don’t have anyone on their roster named Cliff Lee. That alone should be enough reason to feel pretty good about flying to the Twin Cities to take on Joe Mauer & Co.

We all know that Lee has dominated the Yankees in the past few years, most notably in Games 1 and 5 of last year’s Fall Classic (not coincidentally the only two games that the Bombers lost in that series). Twins’ Game 1 starter Francisco Liriano has been very good this season, but he has zero career wins against the Yankees, and current members of the team are hitting a combined .274 with a .342 on-base percentage against him.

In fact, the Twins starters in Games 1-3 (Liriano, Carl Pavano and Brian Duensing) have a combined zero career wins against the defending champs.

The second biggest reason is the fact that the Yanks own the Twins. Since 2002, their record against them is 54-18. And those are numbers that have been reinforced in recent years, as the Yankees swept the Twins in the ALDS last season, and went 4-2 against them this season.

The Twins respect and fear the Yankees, and that mental edge makes them a much more comfortable opponent to face off against than the Texas Rangers would have been.

Here’s what Twins manager Ron Gardenhire had to say about the Boys from the Bronx after last year’s playoff series: “It’s a great baseball team. They deserve all the accolades. They have got a great bullpen. Those guys come out there firing. Bench. The whole package. They’ve got the whole package, they’ve got the whole deal, and they have got some of the classiest players in the league out there, guys I really enjoy watching play.”

“I hate it when I play against them because they kill us, but I enjoy watching Derek Jeter and A-Rod and those guys play,” he went on to say. “Those guys are very talented and classy people out in the field.”

The Twins themselves are one of the most well-run organizations in the game, which is evident when you consider their multiple playoff appearances in the past decade, but I’d much rather take my chances against them than against any team with Lee on it.

What I believe has to be much more disconcerting to Yankee fans is the way the team has played down the stretch. When the Yanks are on their game, there isn’t a team in baseball who is going to beat them. But they have been brutal to watch at times in the past month. Since Sept. 1, the Yankees are 12-17. In their last ten games, they are 3-7. That is not good baseball, no matter how you slice it. They backed into the playoffs, in large part thanks to a strong first half.

In fact, if you examine this season compared to last year, there are very few similarities.

Last season, the Yankees struggled in the first half, as Alex Rodriguez missed significant time, Mark Teixeira got off to a typical slow start, and the bullpen was a virtual mess. But from the All-Star break on, they were on fire. They had the best second half in recent memory, and went into the postseason as the clear-cut top team in the sport. The result was a World Series championship.

This season, they started off red-hot. At the All-Star break the Yankees had the best record in baseball, thanks to an astounding first half from the rotation. But since the break, they’ve played .500 baseball, and seen their once-dominant starting staff falter.

I’m not suggesting anyone should be hitting the panic button, because this is largely the same cast of characters from last year’s squad. We’ve seen in the past seasons (see: 2000) that a strong finish doesn’t necessarily correlate with a strong postseason performance, but for all intents and purposes, there is no way that Yankee fans can be feeling quite as confident this time around.

Momentum is a tough thing to figure out, and I don’t think anyone can predict how quickly it is going to shift, but I do know that the Yankees to need to recapture some of that good stuff from the first half. Quickly.

With that said, I still see the Yankees as the favorites in AL. They still have CC Sabathia and A-Rod and Robinson Cano and Mariano Rivera and many, many others. Joe Girardi has yet to announce any rotation or final roster, but I’ll try to give you a good idea of what the team is going to look like and what to expect in the ALDS.

Yankees Postseason Roster:
C: Jorge Posada, Francisco Cervelli
1B: Mark Teixeira
2B: Robinson Cano
3B: Alex Rodriguez, Ramiro Pena
SS: Derek Jeter, Eduardo Nunez
OF: Brett Gardner, Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher, Austin Kearns
DH: Lance Berkman, Marcus Thames
SP: CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, Phil Hughes,
Bullpen: Mariano Rivera, Kerry Wood, Joba Chamberlain, David Robertson, Boone Logan, Royce Ring, Ivan Nova, AJ Burnett

Not too many surprises with the position players. Because of the fact that you only need to carry four starting pitchers, that gives you one more spot than usual for your bench. Thames, Pena and Cervelli are essentially guaranteed spots, while Kearns too seems like a lock.

Girardi has stated that he likes Nunez more as a pinch-runner than rookie outfielder Greg Golson (made famous by that rocket throw from RF to end a game against Tampa a few weeks ago), so that’s why I have two reserve infielders on the roster. But Golson might be more valuable as a late-inning defensive replacement for Swisher.

There are a few more question marks on the pitching side. I’ve already stated that I think CC will start Game 1, followed by Pettitte and Hughes. Burnett isn’t going to get a start in this series, but he’ll be available as the long man out of the pen. There’s no way they completely leave him off the roster, and if they make it to the ALCS, he’s most certainly in line for a start.

The last two spots in the bullpen are very interesting. The top five spots are absolute locks (Rivera, Wood, Joba, Robertson, Logan), and ideally Girardi won’t have to use anyone beyond them. But I think Ring will get a spot because he is their only other lefty option after Logan, and the Twins have a left-handed heavy lineup with the likes of Mauer, Jim Thome, Jason Kubel and Denard Span.

The last spot is up for grabs amongst the Yankees bevy of long-men: Chad Gaudin, Sergio Mitre, Dustin Moseley and the rookie Nova (I’m ruling Javy Vazquez out).

Moseley has filled-in admirably as a starter and might be the most likely candidate, except he probably wouldn’t be available until Game 3 due to the fact that he pitched on Sunday. As a result, I’m ruling him out.

Gaudin has been the go-to guy out of the pen for Girardi of late despite his 5+ ERA, though he has pitched better in the second half (3.97 ERA and a .239 opponent’s average since the end of July). Mitre has the best numbers out of any of the four (2.45 ERA and a .196 opponents average as a reliever), but Girardi rarely used him down the stretch (2.2 innings between August 27 and September 24), which doesn’t bode well for his chances.

Nova clearly has the best stuff and has been very good through the first few innings of nearly every start he’s made, which could make him an attractive relief option (held opponents to a .196 average with only two extra-base hits in 63 plate appearances his first time through the order).

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Girardi go with Gaudin, but my order of preference would be: 1) Nova; 2) Mitre; 3) Gaudin. (Big thanks to my colleague at The Journal News, Chad Jennings, for doing the math on all of the stats for the relievers)

I’d look for the lineup in Game 1 to look something like this:
1. Jeter, SS (.385 career average against Liriano)
2. Swisher, RF (.313)
3. Teixeira, 1B (.188)
4. Rodriguez, 3B (.111)
5. Cano, 2B (.333)
6. Posada, C (.500)
7. Thames, DH (.357)
8. Granderson, CF (.182)
9. Gardner, LF (.333)

The biggest question is whether or not to start Granderson. Kearns has a career .400 average against Liriano, as opposed to .182 for Granderson. Girardi has sat the Grandy Man against some tough lefties this season, but he’s been playing well and I don’t think you want to start a playoff series with your centerfielder on the bench. I’d try to instill some confidence in him by putting him in the lineup and seeing if he can stay hot.

Starting Thames is a no-brainer when you consider that he has three home runs against Liriano in 14 career at-bats, and Berkman has no hits in three at-bats. Expect to see Thames against lefties and Berkman against righties throughout the playoffs. It’s a bit concerning that Liriano has been so effective against the Yanks’ 3-4 hitters, but the rest of the lineup has very good numbers against him.

Three keys to the series for the Yankees:

1. Pitching, Pitching, Pitching: I considered making all three keys pitching, but that would have been a bit of a cop out. The point is that without question the Yankees’ hopes of repeating rest solely on the shoulders of its pitching staff.

Beyond CC, they are going to need someone to step up in the rotation. The obvious disappointment is AJ, but I don’t think he’s going to even have the opportunity to impact this series unless Pettitte or Hughes gets rocked in the first few innings. One of those two needs to come up big.

The reason I like the Yankees’ chances of winning this series is because I know as long as Pettitte is healthy enough to step foot on the mound, he’s going to at least keep you in the game. But if he does run into any kind of a problem, a lot of pressure is going to fall on Hughes in his first career postseason start.

2. A-Rod: Let’s face it. The Yankees probably don’t win championship #27 if A-Rod doesn’t come through with the greatest postseason performance since Carlos Beltran in 2004 (sorry, Met fans).

The AL Player of the Month led the league in RBI (26) and slugging percentage (.667) in September, and tied for second with nine home runs, so he’s coming into the playoffs feeling good about himself. It’s probably too much to ask for a repeat performance, but the Yankees are going to need him to drive in a few runs at some point.

3. Bridge to Rivera: For nearly the entire month of August and into September, the Fab Five combination in the bullpen was lights-out. It seemed like game after game they would come in and shut down opposing teams to hold slim leads for the Yankees.

Coincidentally, as the Yankees began to struggle down the stretch, the pen lost a bit of its consistency. Joba had 2.25 ERA in August and a 2.13 ERA in September, but he didn’t finish strong. Counting two appearances in October, he has allowed a run in three of his last six.

Logan incredibly didn’t allow a single run in 13 August appearances, but had a 3.68 ERA in September. Robertson had a 2.70 ERA in August and a 2.08 in September, but he allowed four runs in his last seven appearances. All three had excellent second half performances. They became a major strength of the team, but they were used so often that you have to wonder if they didn’t wear down a bit in the past couple weeks.

Wood has been the most consistent. He’s probably secured his spot as the primary eighth-inning guy. Rivera has struggled a bit of late, but he still had another brilliant season overall. They’re going to need at least three or four of them to be on top of their games.

Now, for my final act in this extensive preview, here are my predictions for how it’s all going to shake out (kind of nice to see some new blood in there this year, isn’t it?):

ALDS –

Yanks over Twins in 4: Game 1 will be huge for the Yanks, but if CC can come through with a win I don’t see this going more than four games. I think they’ll get one win between Pettitte and Hughes, and bring CC back to lock it down in Game 4. History will once again repeat itself.

Rangers over Rays in 5: To me, this is the most difficult series to predict. The X-factor is going to be Lee, who has pitched well in his last four starts and appears to be picking up steam at the right time.

The Rays are the more talented team top-to-bottom, but they also have a lineup that can be shut down. I see Lee winning Game 1 against David Price, who the Rangers have a combined .286 average against with a .397 on-base percentage. The Rays will take two of the next three, but Lee will be waiting for them in a decisive Game 5.

NLDS –

Phillies over Reds in 3: This is the biggest mismatch of the playoffs. The Phils are scary good with Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and a resurgent Cole Hamels leading the charge. That’s the best top three in baseball, and I might venture to say that it makes them the favorite at this point. The Reds are just happy to be here.

Giants over Braves in 4: The Braves lineup is lacking firepower due to injuries to Chipper Jones and Martin Prado, and while it’s their pitching that’s got them this far, the Giants pitching is even better. I think they’ll win one for Bobby Cox, but they are just missing too much.

This article originally appeared on The NY Sports Digest. If its off-beat and it’s about the Mets, Yankees, Knicks, Giants, Jets, Islanders, or Rangers, than The Digest is the spot to get it. Stop with the mega-sites and get a feel for the true pulse of New York at www.NYSportsDigest.com

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