New York Yankees: The Starting Rotation Needs Cole Hamels in 2015
March 18, 2015 · Tyler Duma · Jump to comments
Article Source: Bleacher Report - New York Yankees
The New York Yankees‘ starting rotation troubles me. Not to the point where I lie awake thinking about it at night, but close enough I guess.
There’s plenty of reason to be concerned with the group, and each pitcher brings his own unique set of circumstances to fret over.
Because of that, we find ourselves at an impasse. Either the group is what it is, or the front office adds to the rotation in the hopes that it can help carry the team to the playoffs.
To alleviate the issues plaguing the rotation, I propose that the front office look to Cole Hamels. In fact, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, the Bronx Bombers were the closest team to acquiring Hamels when he penned his March 8 piece on Phillies veterans and the possibility of them being traded.
Yeah, I know, you’ve heard it before, and it’s a definite departure from the approach the Yankees are currently taking to building their roster. Getting younger and more athletic has been the goal, and they’ve done a good job of it to this point.
However, when was the last time the Yankees proved willing to ditch success in the present for “possible” success in the future. Well, you’d have to return to the pre-Core Four days in order to find your answer.
So, they should bring in Hamels, right?
Yes? Sweet.
No? Let me change your mind with a few reasons why the Yankees should add Cole Hamels prior to the start of the 2015 season.
Injury Concerns
In a vacuum, the rotation is a solid group. It could be in real life as well, providing each pitcher stays injury free. However, with this group, that’s not a guarantee.
In fact, when I made predictions for the team’s final 25-man roster, I included Chris Capuano as the team’s No. 4 starter, and he’s already hurt. Jon Morosi of Fox Sports had the news on that earlier this week, and it wasn’t good:
Fortunately, with the way Adam Warren has been pitching, it seems as though the team has already found a replacement for the former All-Star.
But even if Warren manages to stick around in that spot (not a guarantee), the Yankees still have concerns up and down the rotation.
CC Sabathia is working back from knee surgery—the third surgery on his right knee. Given his age and weight, it’s entirely possible that his knee may not hold up over the course of the 2015 season, let alone over the remainder of his contract (he has a vesting option for 2017, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts).
Michael Pineda hasn’t pitched a full season since 2011, and if you really feel like stressing yourself out, go look at the severity of his shoulder injuries, per BaseballProspectus.com.
Nathan Eovaldi is young and has some quality upside in his powerful right arm, but he’s not a viable option to lead the rotation at this time.
That brings us to Masahiro Tanaka. The crown jewel of the Yankees’ starting rotation.
The 26-year-old put up a stellar effort in his 2014 rookie campaign, allowing just a 2.77 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. However, Tanaka was limited to 20 starts last year because of, you guessed it, an injury.
The right-hander partially tore his UCL last season and went on the 60-day DL in September. The team and Tanaka elected to forgo Tommy John surgery in favor of treatment and rest, and the hope is that his elbow is completely healed and ready to go in 2015.
But what if it’s not? Well, that, combined with any of the other factors listed above, could put the Yankees in a position where they will have not one, not two, but three starting pitchers spend time on the DL in 2015.
Instead of a decimated rotation, why not bring in Hamels? The 31-year-old has made at least 30 starts in each season since 2008 and has also managed to log 200-plus innings since then in all but one (193.2 IP in 2009).
In short, he’s durable, and on that basis alone, he’d be a solid addition to a starting rotation with an injury-riddled past.
Production, Production, Production
Beyond the fact that he’s durable, Hamels is an extremely productive pitcher.
Over nine big league seasons, Hamels has accumulated a 40.4 WAR, per Baseball-Reference.com, good for a yearly average of 4.5 WAR. To put that in perspective, consider the career and season-average WAR values for the Yankees’ projected starting rotation:
Projected starting rotation courtesy of RosterResource.com.
Now, WAR isn’t the be-all and end-all to measuring a player’s production, but it’s a pretty good place to start.
Right off the bat, you’ll notice that Hamels’ total WAR towers over everyone in the rotation not named Sabathia, and his yearly average is unparalleled within the group.
But as previously mentioned, WAR is not the only important measure of a player’s value. So, let’s also consider the average yearly stat line for each of these players over their last three seasons of play:
Hamels bests the group in a number of categories, and when you factor in that Tanaka‘s stat line comes from a sample size of just one season, it becomes clear that he’d step in and be the best starter in the rotation.
The average stat lines above also further the argument that Hamels is durable, as his average of innings pitched per season in those three years bests the next closest challenger by a whopping 61 innings.
Assuming everyone stays healthy, Hamels would take this rotation from a middle-of-the-pack group to a top-five rotation in a heartbeat.
It’s Feasible
This is arguably the most important part of any possible trade: Is it feasible? In the case of Hamels to the Yankees, yes, it is.
Anybody know how many teams have a payroll above $150 million for the 2015 season? No? Well, according to Sportrac, the answer is seven.
Of those teams, how many can and would be willing to extend their payrolls to include a player due to earn $23.5 million in 2015? Probably less than seven.
In fact, if we’re going to go out on a limb, we can probably narrow that second list down to about three teams who not-so-coincidentally happen to have the top three payrolls for 2015: the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Yankees and the Boston Red Sox.
Hamels isn’t going to be cheap, both in terms of what it will cost to acquire him and in terms of what it will cost to keep him in pinstripes beyond 2015.
Fortunately, the Phillies did the dirty work of hashing out a contract extension prior to the 2013 season, but they paid for it. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Hamels will earn $94 million between 2015 and 2018, and he has an option for 2019 (he’ll be 35 that year) that can be a $20 million team option or a $24 million vesting option based on his 2018 season.
It’s undeniable that $23.5 million per year is a lot to commit to one player. But it’s feasible. The Yankees have deep pockets (they already have $211.74 million in salary obligations for 2015).
With that said, the Yankees’ payroll obligations shrink substantially over each of the next two seasons, and, as it currently stands, the team has just $120.64 million in commitments for 2017 and $93.64 million for 2018, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.
Aside from the steep financial price, it’s going to cost the team a lot in the way of prospects.
Though the Phillies are extremely interested in shipping out some of their more high-priced veterans, they aren’t going to deal Hamels without getting a high-value package in return.
Given the fact that they’re about to go into prolonged rebuilding period, the package heading to Philadelphia is going to have to include prospects with considerable upside.
Fortunately, the Yankees have a farm system that is capable of producing a sufficient trade package.
The much-improved system includes two MLB.com top-100 prospects, and a look at MLB.com’s ranking of the top 30 prospects in the Yankees farm system yields 12 prospects with 50-grade (average) ceilings and two with above-average ceilings.
That kind of depth would certainly be enough to bring Hamels to New York.
While many fans will likely object to depleting the wealth of young talent the franchise has built up, it’s the price to pay for success in 2015.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted. Advanced stats via Fangraphs.com unless otherwise noted.
Tyler Duma is a Featured Columnist for the New York Yankees on Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @TylerDuma.
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