Why New York Yankees Would Make a Huge Mistake Not Dealing at Trade Deadline
June 27, 2012 · Zachary D. Rymer · Jump to comments
Article Source: Bleacher Report - New York Yankees
New York Yankees general manager Brian Cashman must be a great mingler at parties. He’s probably that guy who walks around from group to group, injects himself into the conversation and then leaves feeling like he got something out of the experience.
Makes sense, right? I mean, this is the kind of skill one simply has to accumulate through so many years of talking shop at the MLB trade deadline.
Cashman has made many a deadline trade during his tenure as the Yankees’ GM. Some, such as the Aaron Boone trade in 2003 and the Bobby Abreu trade in 2006, ended up working out pretty well. Others, such as the Jeff Weaver trade in 2002 and the Jose Conteras-for-Esteban Loaiza swap in 2004, didn’t work out so well.
Due to both his success and his failures at the deadline, Cashman knows as well as any GM in baseball when to hold ’em, when to fold ’em, when to walk away and when to run at the trade deadline.
This year, Cashman says he’s hoping to hold ’em.
Here’s what he said on Monday, via the New York Daily News, “I’d rather not do anything, if possible. I’d rather keep our prospects, keep our payroll down. That’s what I’d always like to do. But at the same time, I want to get better.”
Cashman doesn’t think this year’s Yankees have any glaring needs, and he has a point there. The team entered Wednesday’s action with a team ERA of 3.65, which is largely due to the club’s 2.80 bullpen ERA (h/t to FanGraphs for the numbers). And though the Bombers have struggled to come up with clutch hits with ducks on the pond, they make up for it by launching balls out of the ballpark.
In Cashman’s mind, the Yankees are good enough to do what the Yankees are expected to do year after year.
“I like the players we have, the depth we have and I think it’s a championship-caliber type club,” Cashman said.
This is where he’s wrong, and that’s precisely why he should be looking to deal at this year’s trade deadline.
Don’t make the mistake of thinking that I’m suggesting the Yankees are a bad team. They’re not. In terms of winning percentage, they’re the best team in baseball.
But a championship-caliber team? Nope. The Yankees have their share of holes, and these are exactly the kind of holes that will be exploited in the postseason by big-dog AL teams like the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels.
Observe.
No. 2 Starter
The Yankees announced (via Twitter) on Wednesday that CC Sabathia is going to be on the disabled list until after the All-Star break, but there’s no question that he’s the No. 1 pitcher in the Yankees’ starting rotation. There have been cracks in his armor this season, but he’s still been able to give the Yankees seven or so quality innings every time out.
My question is who the Yankees’ No. 2 starter is supposed to be. I seriously have no idea.
Behind Sabathia, what the Yankees have is essentially a collection of No. 3 starters. That’s all well and good as far as the rest of the regular season is concerned, but the postseason is a different animal. They’re going to need a bona fide No. 2 starter that they can use in a short series.
As I’ve written before, Andy Pettitte is the guy I have the most confidence in, primarily because he’s been there and done that before. But though he’s been generally good since his return to action this season, he’s also shown that he can be hit or miss. He’s either going to pitch seven shutout innings, or he’s going to give up four or five earned runs in six or seven innings. He’s not a second ace.
UPDATE: Wednesday, June 27 at 3:55 p.m. ET
Pettitte had to leave his start against the Cleveland Indians on Wednesday after taking a comebacker off his left ankle, and the news from the Yankees’ official Twitter feed is not good:
Yankees LHP Andy Pettitte suffered a left ankle fracture. He will be placed on crutches & into a boot. Anticipated healing time is 6 weeks.
— New York Yankees (@Yankees) June 27, 2012
Now Cashman has even more incentive to make a deal at the deadline.
Ivan Nova is imperfect too. He’s very good when he’s keeping the ball down and using his slider effectively, but he has a tendency to leave the ball up in the zone, resulting in plenty of hard-hit balls. He leads all qualified major league starters in opponents’ slugging percentage.
Hiroki Kuroda manages to walk a fine line between being good enough and being underwhelming. He’ll come through with solid seven-inning outings here and there, but there’s no telling when he might give up eight or nine hits and a couple of home runs in a given outing. He’s been a hard guy to get a read on this season.
As for Phil Hughes, well, he’s a No. 5 starter. He’s seen high highs and low lows, but for the most part the best word to describe him is “meh.” Just like any other No. 5 starter.
What the Yankees need is a guy who can match up against the C.J. Wilsons, Doug Fisters, James Shields’s and Matt Harrisons of the American League when the postseason arrives. They have several candidates for the job, but no real good ones.
Cashman may say he doesn’t want to do anything at the deadline, but the rumblings of the rumor mill tell us that he’s not blind to his club’s need for a starting pitcher.
Jon Paul Morosi of FoxSports.com has reported that the Yankees have scouted Wandy Rodriguez. Gordon Wittenmeyer of the Chicago Sun-Times has reported that the Yankees covet Ryan Dempster. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com has reported that the Yankees actually prefer Matt Garza.
And so on.
The extra wild card in both leagues is going to make this year’s trade deadline even more complicated than usual, but it’s already apparent that there are a number of quality pitchers who could be had for the right price.
The Yankees don’t need to go get a quality pitcher in order to earn a postseason berth. They can do that on their own. But if they want to scare anybody in a short postseason series, they’re going to need a second ace.
An Extra Bullpen Arm Never Hurts
Things looked bad when the Yankees lost Mariano Rivera for the season and then watched David Robertson struggle in his stead in the ninth inning before getting hurt.
It turns out the sky wasn’t quite falling. Just as they did in the last couple of seasons, the Bombers have one of baseball’s best bullpens. Rafael Soriano has done a fine job of closing games, Robertson is back healthy and guys like Boone Logan and Clay Rapada have pitched very well.
Even still, the Yankees’ bullpen was a heck of a lot more dangerous when they could line up Soriano, Robertson and Rivera to pitch in the seventh, eighth and ninth innings. If they had a lead after the sixth, it was all over.
Leads are still safe when they’re in the hands of the Yankee bullpen, but they don’t have the deepest pen in the American League. That honor belongs to the Rangers, a team the Yankees are likely to come across in the playoffs. Their bullpen is deep now, and it’s going to get even deeper once Neftali Feliz, Koji Uehara and Alexi Ogando get healthy.
There are always plenty of relievers to be had at the trade deadline, and it’s in Cashman’s interest to go get one this year.
Granted, Phil Hughes is sure to be placed in the bullpen when the postseason comes, and that’s something Yankees fans should be excited about. Per Baseball-Reference.com, Hughes has a 4.83 ERA and a 2.37 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his career as a starter and a 1.44 ERA and a 4.12 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his career as a reliever.
Assuming Cashman doesn’t trade him (not the worst idea in the world), Hughes will be an asset in the Yankees’ bullpen in the playoffs. But even with him in the pen, the Yankees still won’t have enough bullpen depth to match the Rangers. Another reliever is needed.
Bench Depth
The Daily News report referenced above notes that there is some grumbling among Yankees fans that the team needs another hitter.
It’s a legit gripe, but finding another hitter for the Yankees is about as complicated as it gets. Joe Girardi doesn’t have any glaring weak spots in his starting lineup, and he’ll have one fewer once Brett Gardner finally gets healthy. He’ll go back to left field, Raul Ibanez will go back to being a DH, and everyone will be happy.
This being said, the Yankees’ key reserves don’t strike fear into one’s heart. Andruw Jones has power, but he strikes out a lot. Eric Chavez has been surprisingly good, but the Yankees can take nothing for granted when it comes to his health. Jayson Nix is a simple utility man. Dewayne Wise is a defensive replacement first, and a hitter second.
Much like their rotation and their bullpen, the Yankees’ bench isn’t bad. But also much like those other two units, it could be better.
Finding another hitter isn’t nearly as high on Cashman’s list of priorities as finding another starting pitcher or another reliever, but it wouldn’t be a bad idea.
If Cashman stands pat at the trade deadline, the Yankees are still going to end up making the postseason. They’ve established themselves as the team to beat in the AL East, and it’s hard to imagine them missing out on one of the two wild-card spots if they do happen to miss out on the division title.
Because the postseason is a virtual lock, I can see why Cashman doesn’t feel any sense of urgency to make any deals at the deadline. The Yankees have made it too easy for him to feel content with the way things are.
The problem with the Yankees is that they’re no better now than they were in 2010 or 2011, years in which they fell short of the World Series. They won 95 games in 2010 and 97 games last season, but they were beaten by teams that were better equipped for the postseason than they were both years.
The Yankees aren’t better equipped for the postseason this year than they were at any point in the last two seasons, and what should concern them is that there are still teams out there that are well-equipped.
The Rangers are the team to beat in the AL, as no team in baseball has as much depth in so many areas as they do. The Angels, who have been baseball’s best team since Mike Trout arrived on the scene, are also scary. If the Tigers get in the playoffs, the presence of Justin Verlander and Doug Fister in their rotation and Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder in their lineup will make them a team to be feared.
The Yankees don’t have that same fear factor. Sabathia has been beatable this year, they lack a true No. 2 starter, their lineup is easily beaten when the ball is kept in the yard and Mariano Rivera won’t be around to wrap things up the way he did in so many other postseasons.
Cashman can’t fill all the team’s holes at the trade deadline. But if he doesn’t even try to fill the holes that can be filled, the Yankees will be doomed to fall short of the World Series again.
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